Despite the threat of escalating conflict, some optimism remains amid debilitating events both within and beyond the region, springing from the dynamic and vibrant civil society groups now operating in Mindanao. Yet people also want to see 'peace dividends' unfolding before them and to participate actively in efforts to gain such rewards. It is imperative to tackle some of the real ground-level challenges in Mindanao that have caused detours on the arduous road to peace.
Firstly, high levels of distrust have not been addressed, but exacerbated. The arrest and detention of Misuari in November 2001 led one MILF official to reveal that they were seriously studying the continuing peace talks for fear of the same happening to Salamat Hashim. The distrust is reciprocated by the government, who point to continued attacks attributed to the MILF amidst pronouncements on their readiness to talk.
Secondly, there are feelings of resentment among the majority population that despite the conflict the Muslims are 'pampered'. Moreover, social preparation of any government-sponsored peace and development efforts has been insufficient. In this case, the activities could have included forums for community level conflict analysis and appropriate capacity-building programmes to enhance participation in interfaith dialogues and similar reconciliation processes. Without this, wider society fails to understand why there is a need to reach a peace agreement with the MNLF or MILF in the first place.
Thirdly, governance failures have occurred as a result of traditional patronage politics. The new ARMM officials have vowed to change this, but the appointment of their protégés to high positions negates this goal of transformative leadership. Most government officials are high on rhetoric but very low on making their pronouncements a reality.
Fourthly, the regional and global political concerns of international actors have shaped their involvement (or lack of it) in the peace process in Mindanao. The key mediating countries have been Indonesia and Malaysia. As fellow ASEAN countries they are committed to non-intervention in the Philippines' affairs, although they are concerned about spill-over effects from Mindanao, such as Abu Sayyaf kidnappings in Malaysia. The OIC has not assumed the important role in the GRP-MILF negotiations that it did in the early stages of the GRP-MNLF process. It vacillated on its role in organising a monitoring team to observe the implementation of the 2001 Tripoli Agreement. Its experiences with a recalcitrant MNLF, and unwillingness to switch its backing to the MILF, leave it reluctant to engage.
Because of the Philippines' so-called 'special relations' with the USA dating from colonial times, Philippine leaders have been able to invite American support when confronted with serious internal conflicts. The US and Philippine militaries cooperate in joint operations and training known as Balikatan exercises, which in 2002 focused on fighting Abu Sayyaf who had kidnapped US citizens. US-Philippine 'special relations' were calibrated after Arroyo became the first Asian leader to openly support the American government policies on terrorism. Her state visits to the USA underlined this and she obtained a US$356 million package of defence and counter-terrorism aid for the Philippines. Interestingly, these relations have not disqualified the USA from being seen as a potential mediator by people on both sides. The USA has expressed its interest in doing so, although it is not clear at this stage how realistic a prospect this may be.
Fifthly, a disproportionately small share of the national allocation for regional development goes to the region given the levels of poverty and instability, especially within the ARMM. Mindanao provinces are among those in the bottom of the socio-economic heap in the country as demonstrated by the UNDP 2002 Philippine Human Development Report. It is arguable that if not for the lopsided distribution of funds, Mindanao provinces would not fare so poorly in terms of overall human development and one of the factors fuelling the conflict would be mitigated. Finally, while the government claims to have a clear peace agenda, its functionaries do not seem to be coordinating in its implementation. For instance, while President Arroyo appointed an all-Mindanao government peace panel, the members were not part of the deliberations that led to the signing of several crucial agreements with the MILF. Instead, the Arroyo administration relied on the back-channelling efforts of the Presidential Adviser on Special Concerns. Against the criticisms of the back-channelling efforts, the President's spokespersons have always made pronouncements on their positive outcomes, arguing that they are an informal confidence-building method (used in this case to agree on the ânon-essentialsâ) practised all over the world. Civil society activists responded by raising concerns that the lack of transparency was leading to waning public support for peace talks, demanding new efforts to strengthen the peace constituency and use civil society to monitor the peace process.
Perhaps a more serious variation of the lack of strategic coherence is the timing of military operations just after the signing of peace agreements, as happened in March 2000. Neither the government or MILF seems to be fully in command of its forces. With units spread all over central and western Mindanao, it is not clear if the MILF is in control of their fightersâ actions. The more indiscriminate use of bombings in 2000-2003 (at least some of which can be attributed to the MILF) may be partly due to an ideological hardening of positions and greater factionalisation and disagreement over whether it was worth pursuing talks at all when presented with the prospect of a weaker negotiating position under intense military pressure.
There are several fronts on which efforts could be made to get the Mindanao peace process back on track.
(1) Rethinking of military strategies in Mindanao, including the possibility of a gradual or eventual pull out, especially in areas that are slowly stabilising. The constitutional provisions for the supremacy of the civilian-led police force in protecting peace and order should be put into practice. However, this can be problematic, as the military has constantly played a crucial role in influencing policy in Mindanao. Some opinion makers believe they are the de facto âdeterminantsâ of official government policy in Mindanao, exercising strong influence over Presidents. The military has, at worst, a unilateral, absolutist perspective, believing they can act independently of legislators, and seeing the military option as the only solution to the conflict. But they are not a monolithic block, and if they can be reoriented to look at the gargantuan costs of war instead of looking at the preservation of the so-called national security by all means (especially military), they might become part of the solution too.
(2) Sustained social discourse on the issue of a âmulti-nationâ state, to accommodate identities earlier excluded in the core of national values that serve to demarcate the national identity. This could include serious thinking and rethinking of the Constitution (and the question of federalism) and other legal remedies or instruments that could be used as parameters for discussing aspirations such as regional autonomy or a separate Islamic state for the Muslims.
(3) Peace constituency building on all fronts, and at all educational levels and accompanying sustained capacity building for peace-workers. This could include modules for various social actors, especially the military, to help them embark on more meaningful relationships with the civilian sectors.
Handled properly, Mindanao could be the linchpin that could pave the way for a vigorous regional economy and ultimately, a dynamic national economy built on self-reliance, fairness, justice and empowerment of its constituents. Mindanao has a vibrant civil society network composed of divergent groups and formations that are actively pursuing social development goals. It is wealthy in natural resources and has rich cultural diversity, owing to the many ethno-linguistic groups. Indigenous knowledge and skills could be further harnessed toward the formation of a vigorously developing society.