After the signing of the Luena Memorandum by the government and UNITA in April 2002, the nation witnessed a military peace, allowing the silencing of the guns. In reality, arms were laid down because one of the parties was defeated, not as a result of a ceasefire which anticipated political negotiations, nor as a direct and explicit result of the struggle by the democratic political parties and those sectors of civil society that were against the war. Two years after the Memorandum, the reduction of peace to a military logic has hindered the development of the democratisation process, as the latter is entwined with social peace, a condition that in turn makes democracy effective. The lack of transparency, sincerity and political will to reach real peace is apparent in the pervasiveness of war in Cabinda.
The delay and restrictions on democratisation, combined with the transfer of state property to sectors of society with close links to political power, and the policy of secrecy with regard to public finances and the rendering of state or state-owned company accounts, are hampering the implementation of a 'social peace'. Thus the absence of effective democratisation endangers the consolidation of peace, as peace can only exist alongside freedom, the capacity to share, transparent political competition and social justice – realities that are in opposition to absolute control of society through the politicisation of institutions and the privatisation of the state.
Two symptoms are emerging in the post-war situation. The first regards the difficulty in satisfactorily completing the tasks envisaged in the Luena Memorandum, such as the demobilisation and social reintegration of soldiers, the disarmament of the civilian population, and UNITA's own participation in public office; this is combined with the re-emergence of political intolerance, which is evident in several statements addressed to the government by UNITA officials. The second symptom is evident in people's sometimes violent reactions against government policy and abuses of authority, such as the compulsory transfer of housing from one zone to another to accommodate real estate interests, the demolition of markets without new structures being built, blatant theft from kinguilas (informal money changers) and zungueiras (street sellers) by policemen, and other repressive behaviour. In the provinces especially, there is generally little political freedom or public debate, nor any questioning of anti-democratic government measures. Fear continues to be citizens' normal frame of mind.
In the context of a multidimensional crisis including extreme poverty (about 70 per cent of Angolans live on less than a dollar a day), very high unemployment, and a lack of investment in social sectors such as health and education, the protests – some of which are already becoming violent – are a sign that peace has not been consolidated. This calls attention to the lack of a 'pact' (demanded by both civil society and political opposition parties) between the different political and social forces, to address the causes of the war and the continued violence, such as hunger, glaring social inequalities and lack of freedom. Instead, the government continues to create obstacles to the activity of organisations defending citizens' interests, such as Mãos Livres (Free Hands), SOS Habitat, Cabinda's civic association Mpalabanda and Jubilee 2000. A crucial component of this strategy of restricting democratic space is the refusal to allow Rádio Ecclésia, linked to the Catholic Church, to extend its signal to the whole national territory unless it changes its editorial line, as demanded by the President. 'National reconciliation' has been restricted to the distribution of political positions among UNITA members formerly at war with the government.
The policy of restricted democracy has led to the marginalisation of the role of the opposition parties (viable only within democratic contexts) and the absence of an active civil society. Whether they are in the Assembly or not, political parties have been unable to stop the rampant corruption in the state apparatus, demand the rendering of accounts, or enforce the constitution through the enactment of its institutions. Given that both political parties and organised civil society play the role of mediating forces in the political arena, since they channel citizens' concerns in a constitutional manner, their ineffectiveness compels the mass of citizens to directly confront the regime, which is personified for them in a repressive police force. This situation reinforces the MPLA's conviction of the need for increased investment in means of repression, which is obvious from the General State Budget, which in 2004 still allocates 32 per cent for defence and security, a higher percentage than that spent by the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War.